Trump's Epic Failure

From the

OPINION

Operation epic failure?

Endy Zemenides

13.03.2026 • 23:22

Legend has it that when Alexander the Great began his expedition against the Persian Empire, he was confronted with the famous Gordian Knot—an impossibly tangled rope said to grant dominion over Asia to whoever could untie it. Rather than patiently unravel the strands, Alexander drew his sword and cut through the knot. The story has been held up for centuries as a metaphor for bold leadership: when complex problems paralyze virtually the entire world, the great leader slices through them.

Already compared with Constantine the Great by Archbishop Elpidoforos, President Trump seems to aspire instead to surpassing Alexander.  Long before Operation Epic Fury, he portrayed the world’s conflicts as Gordian knots created by weak leaders and the timid diplomacy of global elites and bureaucrats. Ukraine, Iran, China, the Middle East—for him each presented problems that simply needed someone willing to cut through the knot that confounded everyone else. Operation Epic Fury was supposed to be that moment for him: decisive, dramatic, and transformative

The legendary Cold War historian John Lewis Gaddis defined grand strategy as the alignment of ambitions with capabilities. Gaddis observed that Alexander only learned limits through failures while attributing Rome’s enduring dominance to Octavian’s caution, his ability to balance deploying strengths with compensating for weakness, his ability to identify constraints while achieving successes.

President Trump saw a historic opportunity before him.  A battered Iranian regime, robbed of much of its forward capabilities after Israel had incapacitated Hamas and Hezbollah, knowing that its air defenses had proved inadequate during last year’s 12-day war with Israel and the US, and facing domestic unrest, is at a crossroads.  Toppling the regime in Tehran and empowering a seemingly moderate Iranian public wishing for a better future would reverberate around the world.  If Tehran was no longer in the business of exporting its revolution or developing terrorist groups and rogue states as clients, the Sunni Gulf States and Israel would no longer have this existential threat that not only dominates their strategic thinking but is a convenient excuse for even their most objectionable actions.  Perhaps the greatest rationale for sparing the rod when it comes to Ankara – its potential role in containing Iran – would be gone and Turkey would have to face greater accountability.  And the greatest threat to a US-led order, China, would face greater energy and thus economic pressures if Iran’s oil was diverted elsewhere.  It does not take great imagination to foresee how an Israeli Arab peace, a robust India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, a decrease in terrorism, and significant Western advantages in great power politics all ensue from the best-case scenario of Operation Epic Fury.  

But the best-case scenario has not come to pass.  Instead of a clean Alexandrian stroke, President Trump has opened Pandora’s box.  In less than two weeks, the world has heard a variety of rationales for the war and definitions of victory not from editorial pages and analysts, but from the President himself.  Allies and partners like Cyprus were put on the front lines of a war without warning and without being provided enhanced defenses.  Another great power competitor – Russia – is benefitting from the lifting of oil sanctions because this war is resulting in greater economic pain than the US anticipated.  And while Europe’s – specifically France’s – step forward to defend itself and Middle Eastern allies is welcome, it is not supporting or advancing the US’s main objective in Iran.  The “why” in Europe’s increased investment in defense is as important as the “how”.  If Europe’s strategic autonomy is motivated by lack of trust between it and Washington or a sense of US abandonment of the alliance, we will not be left with a more capable West, but a divided one.  

Still, the question mark in this column’s title is there for a reason.  Any guarantee of success has obviously been discredited, but failure is not inevitable.  If President Trump were open to recalibrating tactics like Octavian, here are some adjustments he should make that are of particular concern to Greece and Cyprus:

Revive US diplomacy

The administration’s reliance on informal envoys and personal channels—most prominently through figures like Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff—has produced the appearance of movement without the substance of strategy. Negotiations led by these informal envoys have as often ended in military action as they have resulted in diplomatic solutions.  The lack of Assistant Secretaries of State for Near Eastern Affairs and for European Affairs creates a gap in capabilities, in credibility and in the confidence of the world in US diplomacy. In the absence of clarity, partners hedge.

Make sure the lifting of sanctions on Russia is temporary

The decision that effectively loosens restrictions on Russian energy exports has sent an unmistakable signal: the United States is willing to dilute one theater of the great-power competition in order to manage another. That tradeoff may buy short-term flexibility, but it undermines the broader effort to constrain revisionist powers that thrive when Western pressure fractures.  It also makes it harder to build momentum on the Vertical Corridor and other energy agreements that Greece served a key role in

Beware of rogue actors trying to gain advantage from chaos

Turkey placing F16s and other weapons systems in occupied Cyprus-despite the lack of threat to Turkish Cypriots and in violation of US arms restrictions-is an example of the above danger.  The failure of the Administration to criticize the move, and then to drop the Halkbank case, in which Turkey was liable for the greatest sanctions evasion scheme (for the benefit of Iran!) encourages Ankara to test the limits of what the Trump Administration will let them get away with.  For the reasons stated above, it is not Erdogan’s interest to see the US and Israel prevail in Israel, and Washington should be pressing Ankara to prove it fealty rather than bribing it only to achieve equivocation on the part of Turkey.

A best-case scenario coming to pass requires abandoning the illusion that the world’s hardest problems can be solved with a single swing of the sword.  The Gordian knot, after all, was a myth. 

https://www.ekathimerini.com/opinion/1298094/operation-epic-failure/